CoBOL and Contracting (new thread)

All -

I'm not sure if I fully understand the distinction between OT threads
within the group and OT posts within a thread, so to play on the safer
side, I thought I'd transpose the CoBOL and Contracting morph into a
separate thread here, not knowing if there is sufficient interest to
sustain it, but we never really do anyway, do we...

Since for the time being what is of interest to me is staying with
CoBOL in my contracting, I'm leaving the subject line without the OT,
as it does involve contracting confined to the CoBOL universe.

These questions come to mind (with apologies to our international
brethren here, for this is mostly a U.S.-centric post)-

1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of
marketshare/mindshare decline? My impression, based on the most
superficial of anecdotal evidence, is that it is in two places in the
U.S. - the northeast corridor, from Richmond/DC to Boston, and the
Great Lakes area (maybe as far south as Louisville/Cincinnati). More
on this later...

2. What application domain "pockets" persist? Limited to financials /
banking / insurance? Weren't they always pre-eminent? The decline of
CoBOL in MRP and MRP II systems could probably be attributed to the
ascendance of the ERP systems and the decline of manufacturing in
general?

3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs.
contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or
so? Does the future of CoBOL exist more in contracting now than in
permanent employment?

4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the
rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the
rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline,
the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the
demand? (I saw an article in the Indianapolis _Star_ that indicates
such a thing will happen in certain key occupations.)

OK -- as I was typing this the idea occurred to me to do an informal
poll with DICE, state by state, and see what the job posts are for
CoBOL, with no other keywords. A rough measure, but it will give us an
idea. Can also get counts for employee/contractor, though some posts
will contain references to both.

CoBOL - no restrictions - 968
CoBOL - fulltime employee - 492
CoBOL - contractor (all kinds, including contract-to-hire) - 552

By state - (without regard to permanent fulltime vs. contractor)
Alabama - 2
Alaska - 1
Arizona - 18
Arkansas - 9
California - 88
Colorado - 20
Connecticut - 49
Delaware - 7
Washington, DC - 10
Florida - 51
Georgia - 29
Hawaii - 0
Idaho - 1
Illinois - 57
Indiana - 10
Iowa - 12
Kansas - 4
Kentucky - 6
Louisiana - 2
Maine - 5
Maryland - 21
Massachusetts -12
Michigan - 22
Minnesota - 38
Mississippi - 2
Missouri - 49
Montana - 1
Nebraska - 9
Nevada - 0
New Hampshire - 0
New Jersey - 59
New Mexico - 0
New York - 67
North Carolina - 23
North Dakota - 0
Ohio - 49
Oklahoma - 5
Oregon - 11
Pennsylvania - 38
Rhode Island - 1
South Carolina - 37
South Dakota - 0
Tennessee - 14
Texas - 51
Utah - 2
Vermont - 0
Virginia - 31
Washington - 10
West Virginia - 0
Wisconsin - 29
Wyoming - 1

A few surprises here, but not too much. The strength in North and
South Carolina for example, and Minnesota, which I did not expect.
So we should modify the Northeast Corridor to be Northeast/Atlantic
Coast, and point out that indeed, Minnesota falls within the reach of
the Great Lakes.

And the Republic of Texas is a pocket unto itself, is it not? ;-)

Ken

On Tue, 5 Aug 2008 16:29:31 -0700 (PDT), "klshafer@att.net" <klshafer@att.net> wrote:

>All -
>
>I'm not sure if I fully understand the distinction between OT threads
>within the group and OT posts within a thread, so to play on the safer
>side, I thought I'd transpose the CoBOL and Contracting morph into a
>separate thread here, not knowing if there is sufficient interest to
>sustain it, but we never really do anyway, do we...
>
>Since for the time being what is of interest to me is staying with
>CoBOL in my contracting, I'm leaving the subject line without the OT,
>as it does involve contracting confined to the CoBOL universe.
>
>These questions come to mind (with apologies to our international
>brethren here, for this is mostly a U.S.-centric post)-
>
>1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of
>marketshare/mindshare decline? My impression, based on the most
>superficial of anecdotal evidence, is that it is in two places in the
>U.S. - the northeast corridor, from Richmond/DC to Boston, and the
>Great Lakes area (maybe as far south as Louisville/Cincinnati). More
>on this later...

Eastern half of the US, with emphasis on Chicago, Dallas, NY/NJ, Atlanta.

Be wary of jobs in small cities, because the client company is likely to be a technical
backwater having employees terrified of losing the only programming job in town. They see
contractors as threats. In such places, an in person interview with *workers*, not
managers, is a must. You especially want to meet the guy who's been there 20+ years. If he
won't talk to you, pass.

>2. What application domain "pockets" persist? Limited to financials /
>banking / insurance? Weren't they always pre-eminent? The decline of
>CoBOL in MRP and MRP II systems could probably be attributed to the
>ascendance of the ERP systems and the decline of manufacturing in
>general?

Telecom, pharma, medical claims, government, retail, banking/insurance. Another is OLD
small companies that have always done Cobol (above), but you don't want to work at those
places. There's not much in finance, which embraces leading edge technologies.

>3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs.
>contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or
>so? Does the future of CoBOL exist more in contracting now than in
>permanent employment?

The most evident trend is toward outsourcing to India, predominantly maintenance, support
and testing. I estimate 10-30% of Cobol jobs go to contractors; the largest percentage are
still held by employees.

>4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the
>rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the
>rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline,
>the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the
>demand? (I saw an article in the Indianapolis _Star_ that indicates
>such a thing will happen in certain key occupations.)

Most Cobol contractors I've worked with were aged 25-40; they were not old people.
The foreigners first learned Java or C++, picked up Cobol later.

SQL is a required adjunct skill on most Cobol jobs, the only exception being those OLD
small companies.

You overlooked asking about platform. It's 60-70% mainframe, 30-40% Unix, near zero on
Windows. I may be biased because my specialty is Unix. The mainframe market seems to have
a surplus of supply over demand. There is less competition on Unix.

>OK -- as I was typing this the idea occurred to me to do an informal
>poll with DICE, state by state, and see what the job posts are for
>CoBOL, with no other keywords. A rough measure, but it will give us an
>idea. Can also get counts for employee/contractor, though some posts
>will contain references to both.
>
>CoBOL - no restrictions - 968
>CoBOL - fulltime employee - 492
>CoBOL - contractor (all kinds, including contract-to-hire) - 552

That's a reflection of DICE, not the market.

>By state - (without regard to permanent fulltime vs. contractor)
>Alabama - 2
>Alaska - 1

Indeed.com has better analytical tools (and better listings). Select Job Trends, search on
Cobol, then combinations of keywords such as "cobol mainframe" and "cobol chicago". Use
the relative graph. To compare two trends, put a comma between the keywords (undocumented
feature). Try "cobol, plsql" for a shocker. Even worse "cobol, c#'. Note that Java shows
signs of aging.

Simplyhired.com has a similar Trend feature, plus a handy average salary tool that uses
your search key. It looks like it might be the indeed database, but isn't. To see they're
not the same, look at C#.

>A few surprises here, but not too much. The strength in North and
>South Carolina for example, and Minnesota, which I did not expect.
>So we should modify the Northeast Corridor to be Northeast/Atlantic
>Coast, and point out that indeed, Minnesota falls within the reach of
>the Great Lakes.

Check the Job Postings Per Capita graphic on indeed.com to see growing cities.

Rank Metropolitian Area Job Postings Per 1000 People
1 (1) San Jose, CA 177
2 (2) Washington, DC 152
3 (4) Hartford, CT 141
4 (3) Milwaukee, WI 127
5 (10) Boston, MA 114
6 (11) Phoenix, AZ 106
7 (7) Austin, TX 106
8 (5) Richmond, VA 102
9 (8) Denver, CO 100
10 (13) Baltimore, MD 96

>And the Republic of Texas is a pocket unto itself, is it not? ;-)

The big surprises to me are Washington DC, Austin and Boston.

Growth is probably not useful for finding Cobol jobs. We're looking for Legacy companies.

In article <08d38d88-27f7-482d-bae8-1b0214aa31e6@y38g2000hsy.googlegroups.com>,
klshafer@att.net <klshafer@att.net> wrote:

[snip]

>1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of
>marketshare/mindshare decline?

I relocated to the Baltimore/DC area over a decade ago and have managed to
keep myself more-or-less working.

>2. What application domain "pockets" persist?

I've had contracts, here, in insurance, medical care and government.

>3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs.
>contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or
>so?

Haven't paid it much mind, myself.

[snip]

>4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the
>rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the
>rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline,
>the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the
>demand?

Could be. If I were able to predict the future I'd make a living working
the stockmarkets and keep coding for fun.

DD

On Aug 5, 11:57*pm, Robert <n...@e.mail> wrote:
> On Tue, 5 Aug 2008 16:29:31 -0700 (PDT), "klsha...@att.net" <klsha...@att..net> wrote:
> >All -
>
> [snip]
>
> >1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of
> >marketshare/mindshare decline? My impression, based on the most
> >superficial of anecdotal evidence, is that it is in two places in the
> >U.S. - the northeast corridor, from Richmond/DC to Boston, and the
> >Great Lakes area (maybe as far south as Louisville/Cincinnati). More
> >on this later...
>
> Eastern half of the US, with emphasis on Chicago, Dallas, NY/NJ, Atlanta.

Agreed. For my interest, there's some sustained presence in the Great
Lakes region. Weekend drive from Indianapolis, which is my criteria.
I've already done my extended tour-of-duty on the East Coast (NYC,
Washington, DC, Philadelphia, Richmond, Harrisburg). Did the Great
Lakes tour back in the 80's: Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto
(later). Now back at the Crossroads of America (Indiana).

>
> Be wary of jobs in small cities, because the client company is likely to be a technical
> backwater having employees terrified of losing the only programming job in town. They see
> contractors as threats. In such places, an in person interview with *workers*, not
> managers, is a must. You especially want to meet the guy who's been there20+ years. If he
> won't talk to you, pass.

We've come to call that phenomenon "contractor envy", and it is *very*
real. Caused me a lot of trouble on a couple of projects. One way the
fearful try to bait you is leading you into a discussion about money.
(_Never_ discuss money details on a project - it is right up there on
the same forbidden list of subjects as politics and religion.) Some
are quite brazen: "How much money could *I* expect to make as a
contractor?" or even more blatant: "Just how *much* money are they
paying you?"

The diplomatic way I've found to deflect this, while answering the
question, is to provide them a formula: "Well, it's competitive with
permanent salaries, calulated in the following way. I receive no
benefits, no social security, no 401K match, no vacation, no training,
none of that, and altogether, that's worth about 30-35% above your
base salary. And then there's the risk premium. Generally, that's
about 15%, which I have found to be *barely* adequate to cover my
downtime when I am not billable at all. So here's what you do - take
*your* salary, which I am sure is competitive, multiply by 1.5, divide
by 2000 hours a year, and that is your hourly rate."

And I agree wholeheartedly with your observation about interviewing
with the old-timers. Now that I think about it, the times they were
included in the vetting process, I had much better luck getting the
assignment.

>
> >2. What application domain "pockets" persist? Limited to financials /
> >banking */ insurance? Weren't they always pre-eminent? The decline of
> >CoBOL in MRP and MRP II systems could probably be attributed to the
> >ascendance of the ERP systems and the decline of manufacturing in
> >general?
>
> Telecom, pharma, medical claims, government, retail, banking/insurance. Another is OLD
> small companies that have always done Cobol (above), but you don't want to work at those
> places. There's not much in finance, which embraces leading edge technologies.

Pretty much substantiates my belief. Thanks.

>
> >3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs.
> >contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or
> >so? Does the future of CoBOL exist more in contracting now than in
> >permanent employment?
>
> The most evident trend is toward outsourcing to India, predominantly maintenance, support
> and testing. I estimate 10-30% of Cobol jobs go to contractors; the largest percentage are
> still held by employees.

I wonder - is there a niche market for a "near shore" :-) maintenance
service bureau? I do think at least *some* of the bloom is off the
offshoring rose. My evidence for this is sparse, and only anecdotal,
but from sources I consider very reliable. Now that rates have been
"capped" domestically, I think it is more feasible than several years
ago.

>
> >4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the
> >rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the
> >rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline,
> >the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the
> >demand? (I saw an article in the Indianapolis _Star_ that indicates
> >such a thing will happen in certain key occupations.)
>
> Most Cobol contractors I've worked with were aged 25-40; they were not old people.
> The foreigners first learned Java or C++, picked up Cobol later.

The natives where I work are all in their late-forties, fifties, and
nearly-sixties. The H1-B's are mostly in their thirties and forties,
with just a couple in their twenties.

>
> SQL is a required adjunct skill on most Cobol jobs, the only exception being those OLD
> small companies.
>
> You overlooked asking about platform. It's 60-70% mainframe, 30-40% Unix,near zero on
> Windows. I may be biased because my specialty is Unix. The mainframe market seems to have
> a surplus of supply over demand. There is less competition on Unix.

Yes, I did overlook OS and "environment". Interesting what you say
about Unix, and the relative comparision of supply/demand with
mainframe. I wonder if CoBOL, being an ANSI standard language, and
Unix, being open-source, are being forced into a shotgun marriage of
convenience to compete with the proprietary likes of MS and C#?

>
> >OK -- as I was typing this the idea occurred to me to do an informal
> >poll with DICE, state by state, and see what the job posts are for
> >CoBOL, with no other keywords. A rough measure, but it will give us an
> >idea. Can also get counts for employee/contractor, though some posts
> >will contain references to both.
>
> >CoBOL - no restrictions - 968
> >CoBOL - fulltime employee - 492
> >CoBOL - contractor (all kinds, including contract-to-hire) - 552
>
> That's a reflection of DICE, not the market.

Are you saying that DICE has a "bias" toward contracting? That would
be good to keep in mind, if it is true.

>
> >By state - (without regard to permanent fulltime vs. contractor)
> >Alabama - 2
> >Alaska - 1
>
> Indeed.com has better analytical tools (and better listings). Select Job Trends, search on
> Cobol, *then combinations of keywords such as "cobol mainframe" and "cobol chicago". Use
> the relative graph. To compare two trends, put a comma between the keywords (undocumented
> feature). Try "cobol, plsql" for a shocker. Even worse "cobol, c#'. Note that Java shows
> signs of aging.

Wow. I took a look at indeed.com and try the Trends. Very, very
interesting. Also, quite curious that I stumbled upon a significant
CoBOL listing, just browsing, at the University of Chicago Medical
Center. That's quite a good school, and *that* is an understatement.
That they are still using CoBOL must say *something*.


>
> Simplyhired.com has a similar Trend feature, plus a handy average salary tool that uses
> your search key. It looks like it might be the indeed database, but isn't.. To see they're
> not the same, look at C#.
>
> >A few surprises here, but not too much. The strength in North and
> >South Carolina for example, and Minnesota, which I did not expect.
> >So we should modify the Northeast Corridor to be Northeast/Atlantic
> >Coast, and point out that indeed, Minnesota falls within the reach of
> >the Great Lakes.
>
> Check the Job Postings Per Capita graphic on indeed.com to see growing cities.
>
> Rank * *Metropolitian Area * * *Job Postings Per 1000 People
> 1 *(1) *San Jose, CA * *177
> 2 *(2) *Washington, DC *152
> 3 *(4) *Hartford, CT * *141
> 4 *(3) *Milwaukee, WI * 127
> 5 *(10) * * * * Boston, MA * * *114
> 6 *(11) * * * * Phoenix, AZ * * 106
> 7 *(7) *Austin, TX * * *106
> 8 *(5) *Richmond, VA * *102
> 9 *(8) *Denver, CO * * *100
> 10 *(13) * * * *Baltimore, MD * 96
>
> >And the Republic of Texas is a pocket unto itself, is it not? ;-)
>
> The big surprises to me are Washington DC, Austin and Boston.

Milwaukee is a bit of a surprise to me as well. A Great Lakes city
I've not yet worked in. I suppose Washington, DC is on there because
Uncle Sam just keeps getting bigger and bigger, either directly, or
through his many private contracting company extgensions.
>
> Growth is probably not useful for finding Cobol jobs. We're looking for Legacy companies.

Agreed. That will be somewhat contrarian. Those of us who don't mind
the gamey flavor of catfish don't mind being called "bottom feeders."
I don't anyway. Can make for a tasty meal. :-)

ken

On Aug 6, 12:29*pm, docdw...@panix.com () wrote:
> In article <08d38d88-27f7-482d-bae8-1b0214aa3...@y38g2000hsy.googlegroups..com>,
>
> klsha...@att.net <klsha...@att.net> wrote:
>
> [snip]
>
> >1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of
> >marketshare/mindshare decline?
>
> I relocated to the Baltimore/DC area over a decade ago and have managed to
> keep myself more-or-less working.

Have you managed to avoid the infamous IRS rewrite project? That's in
Baltimore, isn't it? Yes, I liked the East Coast. I loved taking
Amtrak for weekend excursions. DC to Philly, DC to NYC, DC to
Richmond.

>
> >2. What application domain "pockets" persist?
>
> I've had contracts, here, in insurance, medical care and government.

NYC and DC are only a few hours apart, but seemed like completely
different worlds to me. DC is extremely power-centric; NYC is
extremely money-centric. There _is_ a bit of a distinction between the
two. But both were very, very high-powered to me. All in all, their
environments are very, very stimulating, but tiring, for me. One of
the reasons I'm back in the midwest now.

>
> >3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs.
> >contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or
> >so?
>
> Haven't paid it much mind, myself.

My conjecture is that CoBOL, to the extent that it survives, will be
increasingly paired with contracting, and less with permanent
employees. But that is only a conjecture, with little to support it.

>
> [snip]
>
> >4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the
> >rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the
> >rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline,
> >the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the
> >demand?
>
> Could be. *If I were able to predict the future I'd make a living working
> the stockmarkets and keep coding for fun.

Yeah, well if *I* could predict the future I'd know what the numbers
to the Illinois lottery were for this today and I wouldn't be posting
here on CLC :-) ...

ken

In article <03f4067c-6865-4466-8681-177a5a2eb17d@z66g2000hsc.googlegroups.com>,
klshafer@att.net <klshafer@att.net> wrote:

[snip]

>We've come to call that phenomenon "contractor envy", and it is *very*
>real. Caused me a lot of trouble on a couple of projects. One way the
>fearful try to bait you is leading you into a discussion about money.
>(_Never_ discuss money details on a project - it is right up there on
>the same forbidden list of subjects as politics and religion.) Some
>are quite brazen: "How much money could *I* expect to make as a
>contractor?" or even more blatant: "Just how *much* money are they
>paying you?"

(notice how the reply here is no answer at all)

'You discuss such things... in *public*, with people who are not your
family? How odd... we seem to come from very different backgrounds, we
live in such a wonderful world, full of variations!... lovely weather
we've been having, isn't it?'

DD

In article <e70ccb73-47f3-4494-ac77-38cb83900b31@e39g2000hsf.googlegroups.com>,
klshafer@att.net <klshafer@att.net> wrote:
>On Aug 6, 12:29*pm, docdw...@panix.com () wrote:
>> In article
><08d38d88-27f7-482d-bae8-1b0214aa3...@y38g2000hsy.googlegroups.com>,
>>
>> klsha...@att.net <klsha...@att.net> wrote:

[snip]

>> I relocated to the Baltimore/DC area over a decade ago and have managed to
>> keep myself more-or-less working.
>
>Have you managed to avoid the infamous IRS rewrite project? That's in
>Baltimore, isn't it?

Yes and I don't know. There's an IRS office near the Greenbelt Metro
station what was a hive of activity for a while... but maybe they all got
moved to someplace in West Virginia to satisfy another pork-barrel
project, I have no idea. I do recall that the IRS rates were bad.

[snip]

>> >2. What application domain "pockets" persist?
>>
>> I've had contracts, here, in insurance, medical care and government.
>
>NYC and DC are only a few hours apart, but seemed like completely
>different worlds to me. DC is extremely power-centric; NYC is
>extremely money-centric.

DC is Government, NYC is/was Finance.

[snip]

>> Could be. *If I were able to predict the future I'd make a living working
>> the stockmarkets and keep coding for fun.
>
>Yeah, well if *I* could predict the future I'd know what the numbers
>to the Illinois lottery were for this today and I wouldn't be posting
>here on CLC :-) ...

Perhaps you'd be in the office, telling folks what you really thought of
things... and waving a magic wand while laughingly saying 'You have no
power here... now begone, before someone drops a house on you, too!'

(note to those unfamiliar with United States culture: that was a reference
to the character of Glinda, Good Witch of the North, from the motion
picture 'The Wizard of Oz', a movie whose almost-every line is *seared*
into the subconscious of many Americans... at least the ones who aren't in
Kansas any more)

DD

On Wed, 6 Aug 2008 10:45:44 -0700 (PDT), "klshafer@att.net" <klshafer@att.net> wrote:

>On Aug 5, 11:57*pm, Robert <n...@e.mail> wrote:
>> On Tue, 5 Aug 2008 16:29:31 -0700 (PDT), "klsha...@att.net" <klsha...@att.net> wrote:

>> Be wary of jobs in small cities, because the client company is likely to be a technical
>> backwater having employees terrified of losing the only programming job in town. They see
>> contractors as threats. In such places, an in person interview with *workers*, not
>> managers, is a must. You especially want to meet the guy who's been there 20+ years. If he
>> won't talk to you, pass.
>
>We've come to call that phenomenon "contractor envy", and it is *very*
>real. Caused me a lot of trouble on a couple of projects. One way the
>fearful try to bait you is leading you into a discussion about money.
>(_Never_ discuss money details on a project - it is right up there on
>the same forbidden list of subjects as politics and religion.) Some
>are quite brazen: "How much money could *I* expect to make as a
>contractor?" or even more blatant: "Just how *much* money are they
>paying you?"
>
>The diplomatic way I've found to deflect this, while answering the
>question, is to provide them a formula: "Well, it's competitive with
>permanent salaries, calulated in the following way. I receive no
>benefits, no social security, no 401K match, no vacation, no training,
>none of that, and altogether, that's worth about 30-35% above your
>base salary. And then there's the risk premium. Generally, that's
>about 15%, which I have found to be *barely* adequate to cover my
>downtime when I am not billable at all. So here's what you do - take
>*your* salary, which I am sure is competitive, multiply by 1.5, divide
>by 2000 hours a year, and that is your hourly rate."

I say, "The contract says I'm not allowed to discuss salaries." If they can't find the
answer online, they're clueless.

In private, I see nothing wrong with discussing salary with *other contractors*, not
company employees. We're all in the same exploitation boat. The pimp knows how much we all
make. We're entitled to know whether he's paying one of us $20/hr less than another.

>And I agree wholeheartedly with your observation about interviewing
>with the old-timers. Now that I think about it, the times they were
>included in the vetting process, I had much better luck getting the
>assignment.

The more important issue is keeping the assignment. Managers make hiring decisions;
old-timers make firing decisions. In some shops, being TOO competent will get you fired
faster than being incompetent. I wish I had a surefire question to identify such shops.
I've gooten good results with, "What development methodology do you use?" Bad shops
don't have any, but won't say so during an interview. They'll give a bullshit answer,
which is evident in their inability to answer a simple followup question. Good shops
describe in detail what they do have, even if informall.

>> >3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs.
>> >contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or
>> >so? Does the future of CoBOL exist more in contracting now than in
>> >permanent employment?
>>
>> The most evident trend is toward outsourcing to India, predominantly maintenance, support
>> and testing. I estimate 10-30% of Cobol jobs go to contractors; the largest percentage are
>> still held by employees.
>
>I wonder - is there a niche market for a "near shore" :-) maintenance
>service bureau?

No. You can't compete with third world salaries.

> I do think at least *some* of the bloom is off the
>offshoring rose. My evidence for this is sparse, and only anecdotal,
>but from sources I consider very reliable. Now that rates have been
>"capped" domestically, I think it is more feasible than several years
>ago.

I'm in the middle of it and I see the trend accelerating. First the client outsources
maintenance at a fixed price, then the outsourcer moves it offshore. Performance is easy
to measure, and glitches come out of the outsourcer's pocket.

Development is another story. The concern there is quality, not price. Clients and
outsourcers tend to fear cheap labor won't get it right. Hell, our own people can't always
get it right.

>> You overlooked asking about platform. It's 60-70% mainframe, 30-40% Unix, near zero on
>> Windows. I may be biased because my specialty is Unix. The mainframe market seems to have
>> a surplus of supply over demand. There is less competition on Unix.
>
>Yes, I did overlook OS and "environment". Interesting what you say
>about Unix, and the relative comparision of supply/demand with
>mainframe. I wonder if CoBOL, being an ANSI standard language, and
>Unix, being open-source, are being forced into a shotgun marriage of
>convenience to compete with the proprietary likes of MS and C#?

Java and gcc compete with C# for the mainsteam. Cobol is a specialty language in the Unix
world.

Micro Focus owns the Unix Cobol market. Its compilers and runtimes are relatively
expensive. Others here talk about using Fujitsu Cobol; I've not seen it in any big US
company.

>> >OK -- as I was typing this the idea occurred to me to do an informal
>> >poll with DICE, state by state, and see what the job posts are for
>> >CoBOL, with no other keywords. A rough measure, but it will give us an
>> >idea. Can also get counts for employee/contractor, though some posts
>> >will contain references to both.
>>
>> >CoBOL - no restrictions - 968
>> >CoBOL - fulltime employee - 492
>> >CoBOL - contractor (all kinds, including contract-to-hire) - 552
>>
>> That's a reflection of DICE, not the market.
>
>Are you saying that DICE has a "bias" toward contracting? That would
>be good to keep in mind, if it is true.

Yes, DICE is a place for hiring contractors. Employers use more traditional channels to
look for employees. Indeed.com is a better measure of the total market because it
consolidates many channels, including newspapers.

>> >By state - (without regard to permanent fulltime vs. contractor)
>> >Alabama - 2
>> >Alaska - 1
>>
>> Indeed.com has better analytical tools (and better listings). Select Job Trends, search on
>> Cobol, *then combinations of keywords such as "cobol mainframe" and "cobol chicago". Use
>> the relative graph. To compare two trends, put a comma between the keywords (undocumented
>> feature). Try "cobol, plsql" for a shocker. Even worse "cobol, c#'. Note that Java shows
>> signs of aging.
>
>Wow. I took a look at indeed.com and try the Trends. Very, very
>interesting. Also, quite curious that I stumbled upon a significant
>CoBOL listing, just browsing, at the University of Chicago Medical
>Center. That's quite a good school, and *that* is an understatement.
>That they are still using CoBOL must say *something*.

It's gone now. I'm nearing end of contract in Chicagoland

On Aug 6, 10:02*pm, Robert <n...@e.mail> wrote:
> On Wed, 6 Aug 2008 10:45:44 -0700 (PDT), "klsha...@att.net" <klsha...@att..net> wrote:

> >And I agree wholeheartedly with your observation about interviewing
> >with the old-timers. Now that I think about it, the times they were
> >included in the vetting process, I had much better luck getting the
> >assignment.
>
> The more important issue is keeping the assignment. Managers make hiring decisions;
> old-timers make firing decisions.

Very perceptive observation.

> In some shops, being TOO competent will get you fired
> faster than being incompetent. I wish I had a surefire question to identify such shops.

Probably no surefire question to ask in the interview. Being too
competent becomes apparent later; the shop will find ways to give you
the *clues*, I've found. That's why nowadays I emphasize achieving
good *intersection* with the shop and its ways is a better way to
achieve longevity than mere competence.

[snip]

> >Are you saying that DICE has a "bias" toward contracting? That would
> >be good to keep in mind, if it is true.
>
> Yes, DICE is a place for hiring contractors. Employers use more traditional channels to
> look for employees. Indeed.com is a better measure of the total market because it
> consolidates many channels, including newspapers.

I kinda suspected as much. And yet, I've had only mixed results using
DICE. No better, and probably not as good, as just staying in touch
with ex-coworkers and using word-of-mouth.

[snip]

> >Wow. I took a look at indeed.com and try the Trends. Very, very
> >interesting. Also, quite curious that I stumbled upon a significant
> >CoBOL listing, just browsing, at the University of Chicago Medical
> >Center. That's quite a good school, and *that* is an understatement.
> >That they are still using CoBOL must say *something*.
>
> It's gone now.

Hopefully, you meant only the listing/opportunity, and not the U of C
Med Center :-).
University of Chicago really is a very, very good school. Top notch.

ken